Comments on: Monty Hall / Let’s Make a Deal problem simulator http://www.blog.lessrain.com/monty-hall-lets-make-a-deal-problem-simulator/ Lessrain Blog Wed, 08 Feb 2012 22:20:12 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: Let’s Make a Deal « The Algorithmist http://www.blog.lessrain.com/monty-hall-lets-make-a-deal-problem-simulator/#comment-112477 Let’s Make a Deal « The Algorithmist Mon, 26 Nov 2007 23:49:36 +0000 http://www.blog.lessrain.com/monty-hall-lets-make-a-deal-problem-simulator/#comment-112477 <p><p>[...] </p>

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]]> By: Carsten http://www.blog.lessrain.com/monty-hall-lets-make-a-deal-problem-simulator/#comment-83 Carsten Wed, 13 Jul 2005 18:39:22 +0000 http://www.blog.lessrain.com/monty-hall-lets-make-a-deal-problem-simulator/#comment-83 <p>The mistake is simply that people think they have a fifty fifty chance with each remaining door after a mule is revealed. Obviously that's not the case - the initally selected door keeps its 1 in 3 chance of winning from the beginning of the game. </p> <p>It is quite mind bending though...</p> The mistake is simply that people think they have a fifty fifty chance with each remaining door after a mule is revealed. Obviously that’s not the case - the initally selected door keeps its 1 in 3 chance of winning from the beginning of the game.

It is quite mind bending though…

]]> By: Alexander McCabe http://www.blog.lessrain.com/monty-hall-lets-make-a-deal-problem-simulator/#comment-77 Alexander McCabe Sun, 03 Jul 2005 14:11:52 +0000 http://www.blog.lessrain.com/monty-hall-lets-make-a-deal-problem-simulator/#comment-77 <p>I think this is the condition that all the confusion turns on</p> <p>3: The host knows in advance which door contains the prize and <em>always</em> opens a door containing the non-desirable item before offering the choice to switch or stay.</p> <p>This condition is often not stated in the problem, and slight changes to it can change the whole problem. If that condition were</p> <p>3: The host doesn't know where the prize is and always opens one of the the two remaining doors randomly.</p> <p>Then the whole problem changes.</p> <p>Furthermore, if you don't know what rules the host is playing by, and if the host may actually be trying to trick you, then it becomes a really interesting exercise in Game Theory.</p> I think this is the condition that all the confusion turns on

3: The host knows in advance which door contains the prize and always opens a door containing the non-desirable item before offering the choice to switch or stay.

This condition is often not stated in the problem, and slight changes to it can change the whole problem. If that condition were

3: The host doesn’t know where the prize is and always opens one of the the two remaining doors randomly.

Then the whole problem changes.

Furthermore, if you don’t know what rules the host is playing by, and if the host may actually be trying to trick you, then it becomes a really interesting exercise in Game Theory.

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